Michigan's open Senate seat is rated Toss-Up by all major forecasters. The Democratic primary features a historically competitive three-way race with all three leading candidates raising between $7.6M and $8.9M. El-Sayed is now the sole polling frontrunner, MIRS/Mitchell Research (fielded May 1–7, 2026; N=606 likely voters) shows El-Sayed 28%, Stevens 18%, McMorrow 17%, with 38% undecided, and he won the UAW endorsement on June 5, the biggest labor prize of the cycle. Outside spending for Stevens has escalated to roughly $8.85M across five groups per Detroit News, including AIPAC’s United Democracy Project entering with a $2.3M buy. Republican Mike Rogers, backed by a $45M Senate Leadership Fund commitment (largest single-state investment in SLF history) that is now actively deploying, is unopposed on the August 4 GOP primary ballot and leads all three Democrats within or near the margin of error in the spring Detroit Regional Chamber/Glengariff general-election poll, after losing the 2024 race to Elissa Slotkin by 0.33%.